Q1 2026 Global Economic Outlook: Growth Divergence Across Emerging Markets

Q1 2026 Global Economic Outlook: Growth Divergence Across Emerging Markets

Global economic momentum in Q1 2026 is characterised by significant divergence between developed and emerging market economies. While the US and EU navigate soft-landing scenarios, Sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia and select Latin American economies are experiencing robust expansion trajectories.

Regional Breakdown

Sub-Saharan Africa: Nigeria, Kenya and Ghana lead growth at 4.8%, 5.2% and 4.1% respectively. Currency stabilisation and improved foreign reserve positions make these markets increasingly attractive for institutional allocation.

Southeast Asia: Vietnam and Indonesia continue to benefit from supply chain diversification away from China. GDP growth projections of 6.8% and 5.4% respectively signal sustained capital inflows.

Latin America: Brazil's Selic rate cuts are stimulating domestic consumption. Mexican nearshoring momentum continues to attract foreign direct investment, supporting MXN appreciation against the USD.